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The NBA is Back: Projection for the Season

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The NBA is Back

Rookie of the Year – Damian Lillard

Projection for Rookie Stats – 18.5 ppg, 7.7 assists, 4.2 rebs, 1.2 stls, 3.2 tos

Everyone will likely select 2012’s number 1 pick, “Unibrow” Anthony Davis to have an immediate impact in the league and run away with Rookie of the Year, but I’m not so sure.  Take a look over the Western Conference and you’ll find the number 6 pick of this year’s draft Damian Lillard, who has the opportunity to immediately produce and become the leader of his team as he takes the helm as Portland’s floor general.  Through the pre-season he was stellar, averaging 16.2 points and 5.8 assists per game.  He will have turnovers as most rookie guards, but with his minutes and no legitimate teammate to challenge his time, Lillard will put up great rookie numbers.  If Portland makes the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed, which is a definite possibility, look for him to be a huge reason.

Most Improved – Paul George

Stat Projections – 19.2 ppg, 7.5 rebs, 4.1 asts, 2.1 stls

My top 2 candidates are Glen Davis of Magic and Paul George of the Pacers.  As much as I hate to say it, this was a tough decision for me to make.  I am not a fan of “Big Baby” Glen Davis, and I wish I didn’t have to put him in the discussion, but reality is reality.  The Orlando Magic are not going to be good this year with the loss of Dwight Howard and the mediocre personnel at every position.  Now that Howard is in L.A. and Ryan Anderson signed with New Orleans, minutes and shots will increase for Davis.  He averaged a career of just 7.9 points, and 4.3 rebounds with just 21 minutes per game off the bench.  He is now the starting power forward and averages 16.9 and 5.7 through 26 minutes this preseason.  Nonetheless, this is the year Paul George asserts himself as a force to be reckoned with on a nightly basis.  Danny Granger is out indefinitely with a knee injury and you can expect PG24 to be more assertive as his coaches and teammates have asked him to be.  He is already a top perimeter defender in the league and he has the ability to shoot the 3 efficiently.  This season he will see more shots and minutes coming his way, therefore, the opportunity for George to turn his label as future star into current elite player has come.   Everyone loves a winner, and Paul George is a part of an Indiana Pacers playoff team poised for a great run.  Great individual play and team success = awards.

Sixth Man – J.R. Smith

Projections – 16.6 ppg, 2.5 asts, 4.7 rebs, 212 3 pointers made on 39% shooting

Initially, my pick was Ray Allen as I believe he will reap the benefits of running the floor to receive wide open looks from LeBron and D-Wade, however, J.R. Smith will also be big for the

are Stoudemire out for at least 6 weeks of the season, Smith will be asked to help Carmelo Anthony bolster the scoring load of the Knicks.  He wants to start, but says he going to play whatever role Mike Woodson asks.  Having better point guards than Lin in Felton and Kidd, Smith will find open looks very often.  Expect many 20 point games from the New Jersey native.

Defensive Player of the Year – Dwight Howard

Projections – 18.7 ppg, 12.5 rebs, 2.9 blks

Returning from back surgery, Howard will find better defenders and superior interior help in the paint.  He will have the opportunity to concentrate and conserve energy towards the defensive side of the ball since he has more than enough help offensively in L.A.  He already asked his teammates to not gamble, but play honest and tough defense in order to force the opposition to take difficult contested shots.  Tyson Chandler is a close second as he has also some extra help this year with Marcus Camby and Rasheed Wallace to help him defend the rim.  Still, the Lakers have better overall defenders except for Nash at point guard.  Then again, we can expect Howard to send point guards and their floaters towards Jack Nicholson on the sidelines.

Coach of the Year – Doug Collins

Obviously this is heavily based on the team’s success, but Mike Woodson has the opportunity to gain a lot of attention if he continues his success in New York from the last year.  If Woodson can solve Carmelo and Amare’s problem of successfully playing together, and maintains the Knicks as the superior New York team, then he will be acknowledged, but my choice is still Doug Collins.  Collins is a great coach and basketball mind.  Since he took the head coaching job in Philly things have improved and the Sixers are constantly a team to watch out for.  Last year, the Sixers beat the Bulls and advanced to the 2nd round where the Celtics ended their run.  Look for Doug Collins to lead his team to a higher seeding, possibly in the top 3 or 4 and have teams trying to avoid them come playoff time.  Now with a dominant center in Andrew Bynum and a great young guard in Jrue Holiday leading the way, Doug Collins will see even more success and win coach of the year.

MVP – Carmelo Anthony

Projections – 25.5 ppg, 8.2 rebs, 4.3 asts

Yes I know I’m a little biased being that the guy is my favorite player, but I’m not the only person that believes Carmelo will be in the MVP discussion this season.  With improved point guards, Anthony no longer has to play point guard and he will find open and less contested shots.  He says he is ready to lighten up on the scoring load and contribute more in other areas.  So, look for more assists, rebounds, and DEFENSE!  LeBron will have another MVP caliber season and the Heat will be elite once again, but I believe some credit is automatically diminished from him since he has 2 all-stars by his side.  A player with less help that can skyrocket his team to the top deserves the prize because he is more valuable to his team.  Take LeBron from the Heat and they are still a top team in the East.  Rajon Rondo and Chris Paul are the 2 best point guards in the league and they

make their teams better every night.  The Celtics and Clippers can potentially finish as top seeds in their respective conferences as well.  Both are elite passers, floor generals, and they know when to take over the game.  The NBA gave Kobe Bryant MVP over Chris Paul in the 2007-08 season even though many feel CP3 taking an average Hornets team to the playoffs was more deserving.  This is a point guard’s league now and the 2 will be under consideration.  When everything is said and done, each of these teams will be elite and in the playoffs, but everyone believes it’s time for Carmelo to win a title since his buddy LeBron obtained his.  I see him rising to the challenge.

World Champs – N.Y. Knicks                      

Finals MVP – Carmelo Anthony

I have a Knicks vs. Lakers final for the 2012-13 season.  This may very well be Kobe’s last opportunity to tie Michael Jordan with 6 championships, so he will be hungry.  He has great help and the core of the Lakers lineup has great playoff experience.  The high profile Lakers will run into a new rugged Knicks team that is experienced to say the least.  The Lakers have the superior big men, but the Knicks depth in frontcourt players will give the Laker bigs a hard time scoring.  Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard will face off against 2 Defensive Player of the Year winners in Tyson Chandler and Marcus Camby.  The Knicks also have Wallace who is a great low post defender.  The finals will come down to which star makes more crucial plays for their team down the stretch.  Kobe Bryant vs. Carmelo Anthony, two of the game’s most clutch late game performers.  Kobe will be closely defended by Ronnie Brewer while Carmelo will have to deal with a pestering World Peace.  Anthony will shine and J.R. Smith will provide great help off the bench.  Knicks win the series 4-3 in dramatic fashion.
@QuietStormSB

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